Eighteen of India's 28 states exceeded the fiscal deficit ceiling of 3 per cent of GSDP in FY25, a deterioration comparable to the Covid year of 2020-21, according to the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG). The report also noted a decline in states reporting a revenue surplus, with Bihar, Mizoram, and Telangana moving into deficit.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is anticipated to make its highest-ever dividend payment to the government this year, providing a significant fiscal boost to address challenges, including those stemming from the ongoing Middle East crisis.
India's Central government is likely to see its fertiliser subsidy bill double to a record 3.4 trillion in FY27, up from the Budget estimate of 1.7 trillion, due to surging global fertiliser prices exacerbated by the West Asia war. This significant increase, coupled with revenue losses from excise duty cuts for oil-marketing companies, is straining the government's fiscal space, though capital expenditure plans remain unchanged.
The finance minister could review customs duty on crude oil, other exemptions.
Pakistan has increased its defence budget by 17.6 per cent to PKRs 3,000 billion for the upcoming fiscal year, as announced by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb. The federal budget, estimated at PKRs 18,771 billion, targets 4 per cent GDP growth, with significant allocations for debt service and pensions. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif highlighted economic stability and ongoing discussions with the IMF, while the opposition protested Imran Khan's incarceration during the budget session.
The Indian government is set to accelerate reforms, including measures to enhance foreign direct investment, speed up divestment, and boost asset monetisation, to maintain economic growth despite rising fuel and fertiliser import costs driven by the West Asia crisis.
The idea of back-loading the target of fiscal consolidation is perhaps guided by the government's desire to be prepared for any adverse developments in the coming year, points out A K Bhattacharya.
The Indian central government has reduced its total expenditure by approximately 60,000 crore in FY26, below its revised estimate, to successfully achieve the fiscal deficit target of 4.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), according to the latest data from the Controller General of Accounts (CGA).
Around 24 paise will come from borrowings and other liabilities, 10 paise from non-tax revenue like disinvestment, and 2 paise from non-debt capital receipts, the Budget documents showed.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced a record surplus transfer of Rs 2.87 trillion to the central government for FY26, driven by increased income and an expanded balance sheet, despite a reduction in the contingent risk buffer (CRB) to 6.5 per cent.
The Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) has reported significant financial irregularities in the Union government's FY25 accounts, including ~12,754.47 crore in misclassification and ~54,282.32 crore in outstanding utilisation certificates, with some dating back to 1985-86.
Under the TMC, Bengal has seen expansion of welfare, but not big-ticket private investment.
The conflict may disrupt Budget 2026-2027 projections, squeezing revenues and raising subsidies, prompting fiscal adjustments and potential reforms, echoing lessons from the Covid-era shock, points out A K Bhattacharya.
India's 18 largest states, accounting for over 90 per cent of the country's gross state domestic product (GSDP), are likely to record a marginal uptick in revenue growth to 7-9 per cent this year, from 6.6 per cent clocked in 2024-25 (FY25), rating agency Crisil said in a report on Tuesday. This growth, slower than the decadal average of about 10 per cent, would lift these states' cumulative revenue to around Rs 40 trillion in FY26 from Rs 37.26 trillion in FY25.
India's privatisation push, once projected as a cornerstone of economic reform, has suffered another setback, with the Centre set to call off the IDBI Bank stake sale, highlighting the political and structural constraints shaping the country's disinvestment policy, experts say.
On Agri Stack, Expenditure Secy V Vualnam says it's progressing well; using IT, farmers will be able to choose exact fertiliser quantities needed, reducing crowding at fertiliser outlets.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's biggest challenge will be to find a new growth driver, particularly against the backdrop of a global economy ravaged by heightened uncertainty and fragmentation, financial markets on a precipice, and global commodity prices on a continued uptrend.
A shift appears underway in India's tax landscape. States with relatively smaller tax collections like Odisha and Telangana are emerging as the fastest-growing contributors to indirect and direct tax collections, respectively.
The Indian economy is likely to grow at 7.4 per cent in 2025-26, up from 6.5 per cent in the previous fiscal, mainly on account of better performance of manufacturing and services sectors, as per the government data released on Wednesday.
The Centre's fiscal deficit stood at 17.9 per cent of the full-year target at the end of June, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) on Thursday. It was at 8.4 per cent of Budget Estimates (BE) of 2024-25 in the first three months of the previous financial year.
The best course for the government at this time would be to tighten the seat belt a little more, without compromising on its investments in creating better infrastructure and giving a push to privatisation, points out A K Bhattacharya.
The central government's fiscal deficit fell to 0.8 per cent of the full-year target at the end of May, mainly due to a whopping Rs 2.69 lakh crore dividend received from the Reserve Bank of India. The fiscal deficit, or gap between the government's expenditure and revenue, had touched 11.9 per cent of the Budget Estimates (BE) for 2025-26 or Rs 1.86 lakh crore in April.
With the fiscal deficit target staring at the government, the FY25 Budget has limited expenditure options, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Defence expenditure was pegged at 1.4 per cent of GDP in the Budget for 2025-26 but it may widen, depending on tensions between India and Pakistan.
For every rupee in the government coffer, the biggest pie of 66 paise will come from direct and indirect taxes, according to the Union Budget 2025-26 documents. Around 24 paise will come from borrowings and other liabilities, 9 paise from non-tax revenue like divestment, and 1 paise from non-debt capital receipts, the Budget documents said.
'We are not incentivising the old tax scheme. These taxpayers will also shift to the new regime after comparison.'
'The revenue projection arises out of all sectors doing well and the formalisation of the economy helps in making sure the tax domain gets widened.'
The tax revenue during April-August was 24.89 per cent of the budget estimate of Rs 3,27,205 crore (Rs 3272.05 billion) while non-tax revenue was 32.9 per cent of the budget estimate of Rs 76,260 crore (Rs 762.6 billion) for 2006-07.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present her 8th straight Budget and all eyes will be on the much-expected tax relief for the middle class. Sitharaman had in her first Budget in 2019 replaced the leather briefcase -- which had been in use for decades for carrying Budget documents -- with a traditional 'bahi-khata' wrapped in red cloth.
For every rupee in the government coffer, the biggest pie of 63 paise will come from direct and indirect taxes, according to the Union Budget 2024-25 documents.
India's gross tax revenue, comprising both direct and indirect taxes between April and July, reported a growth rate of merely 2.8 per cent to Rs 8.9 trillion compared to the same period a year ago, as shown by government data on Thursday. This growth was dampened by direct tax figures, offsetting the healthy growth in goods and services tax collections and Customs duties. While net tax revenue contracted by 12.6 per cent to Rs 5.8 trillion up to July, accounting for 25 per cent of the Rs 23.3 trillion full-year target, this could be attributed to the increased tax devolution to states during the period.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is likely to hold pre-budget consultations with industry chambers on June 20, sources said. The budget for 2024-25 fiscal is likely to be presented in Parliament in the second half of July. Industry sources said the pre-budget consultation with Sitharaman would be preceded by a meeting with Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra on June 18.
In November, the fiscal deficit widened by Rs 2.2 trillion, the highest ever in any month this financial year.
Can the finance minister manage our expectations, asks A K Bhattacharya.
The 3G mobile licence bonanza is expected to generate over Rs 40,000 crore for the central exchequer this year, as a result of which the fiscal deficit may stand at 1.75 per cent of GDP in 2008-09, lower than the 2.5 per cent projected in the Budget. "The important thing, from a public finance perspective, is to remember that this is a one-time inflow and we should treat it as such," said Finance Secretary Subbarao.
The central government's fiscal deficit during 2023-24 at 5.6 per cent of the GDP was better than previous estimates of 5.8 per cent on account of higher revenue realisation and lower expenditure, according to official data released on Friday. In actual terms, the fiscal deficit -- or gap between expenditure and revenue -- was Rs 16.53 lakh crore, or 5.63 per cent of the GDP, which grew 8.2 per cent in 2023-24.
Instead of conceding the demand for a cut in personal income-tax rates, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman should phase out many exemptions in both personal and corporation taxes, suggests A K Bhattacharya.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi led-NDA government in its third term must tackle the problem of unemployment in the country, especially in the unorganised sector and in small and medium enterprises, former NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar said on Monday. Kumar also emphasised that the government now must finalise the four labour codes as it has been delayed beyond expectations. "We must recognise that post-COVID economic recovery has been a K-shaped recovery.
Ehile the Centre had projected tax revenues to touch 12.1 per cent of GDP in FY19, Revised Estimates peg the collections at 11.9 per cent, owing to a shortfall in the goods and service tax (GST) collections, reports Ishan Bakshi.
